What do you guys think about the Commonwealth Provisional Government? Do you think it was doomed to fail from the start, do you think it had any major potential, or do you think there is still a chance for people to come together and reform the CPG?

First, a little history on the subject. Not much is known about the CPG other then it failed before it had a chance to take off. In fact, during a major gathering of the CPG, representatives from a number of different settlements had appeared. Stories conflict but during the event,
a number of people were killed and the rest scared off, thus ending any chance for the CPG to become a reality creating the event referred to as the CPG massacre.

Nick Valentine tells the Sole Survivor that the Institute was responsible, sending a Synth spy to slaughter everyone. But on the opposite end, the Institute instead proclaims that they were heavily involved with the CPG in the first place.

This creates an impasse. Who was responsible? The story about how the Institute sent a synth spy to wipe everyone out is plausible, as by attacking the CPG the settlements remain divided. Thus preventing them from merging and forming into a real threat. Looking at what remains of the Institute's FEV lab, this seems extremely plausible scenario.

But on the opposite end of the spectrum, the Institute tells us the CPG was in complete disarray and falling apart. An Institute holotape tells us they had been involved with the CPG for roughly four years trying to make something they felt was a total disaster into something that in their eyes would be a success. A plan to restore order once the CPG dissolved had been proposed to the then director. The plan was to enforce order with the use of synths as they did not want to give up on the people topside. It's obvious this plan failed and the Institute gave up on them. Thus turning the Institute into what is seen during the events of Fallout 4. A secretive organization known better as the Commonwealth's boogeyman.  

So, who do you think was responsible? The Institute or some other rogue element? And do you think the CPG has any chance of being reformed?

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@"MrEggs0925" I don't think the CPG was expanded on enough in the game as we are never actually given enough information as to discern as to why it actually collapsed.

In regards to examining if the Institute was responsible, we need to examine the 3 factors for committing any crime. Means, motive and opportunity.

Means: The Institute surely had the means.

Opportunity: Infighting and chaos is always a good environment for a power grab.

Motive: This is where things will become difficult to interpret. The Institute could theoretically have been apart of the CPG to know how to divide it, and ensure their monopoly of power, or they took a leaf out of Britain's foreign policy and adopted a divide and rule approach. This is not a difficult matter, considering the current state of affairs in the Commonwealth.

While it is easy to rag on the CPG for failing, we too have to look at its biggest success, which was that it brought the Institute to the negotiating table. But perhaps its biggest success was also what would lead to its collapse?

As aforementioned, the Institute had means, motive and oppurtinity. The fact that it joined the CPG shows that the CPG was seen as formidable. Perhaps even a threat. This is where divide and rule comes in, and the Institute simply needed to be in to know when to strike.

Ultimately though, its really a missed opportunity for Bethesda to not allow this to be reformed as part of the minuteman faction, and I wish that they had in fact expanded on it.

In regards to feasibility of a proper Commonwealth government? Yes, but ultimately what is likely to be seen is a significant degree of blood being shed which is common in regards to any form of state building. IE a sole faction ending. There are far too many diverging interests, ideologies, philosophies and groups for me to believe otherwise.